Santa Clara
Kickoff
19:15
NacionalProvisional selection · Filed 05:48 UTC · confirmed with the lineups 45 minutes before kickoff
NacionalProvisional selection · Filed 05:48 UTC · confirmed with the lineups 45 minutes before kickoff
Santa Clara project stronger attacking chances at 1.32 expected goals against Nacional's 0.82, supporting a match above 1.5 goals; the model rates it at 67 percent, a little below the market's 70 percent.
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Tap any market for the model's reasoning, the numbers behind it and to track the pick. Fair price is the de overrounded model probability expressed as decimal odds, not a bookmaker quote.
The SharpCast Builder is a same-game multi built only from this fixture's own picks. Because the legs come from one match they are correlated, and the combined chance is priced over the projected scorelines rather than multiplied as if independent. The price shown is the model's fair price for that chance.
The same-game multi for this fixture, built from its own picks and priced for correlation, is a Pro feature.
2.1 expected goals · most likely total 2 · a balanced game
model probability · fair price
Running on the league baseline, no team cards history yet. Treat as a guide, not a team specific read.
This call rests on Dixon Coles strength, time decayed form, expected goals and the de overrounded market consensus, across 10,000 simulated matches.